Bigger world cotton crop expected
May 11, 2010 11:07 AM, By Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff
World consumption is projected to rise 2.8 percent, while an increase in China’s imports to 11.5 million bales is boosting world trade. World ending stocks are projected to decline 2.6 million bales to 50.1 million bales. The stocks-to-consumption ratio of 42 percent is the lowest since 1994-95.
USDA is projecting a 16.7 million bale U.S. cotton crop for 2010, based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, 7-percent abandonment and projected yield of 815 pounds per harvested acre.
In its May 11 Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA backed off the 10-year average abandonment of 11 percent due to unusually favorable soil moisture in Texas.
Domestic mill use is projected at 3.3 million bales, a marginal reduction from 2009-10. Cotton exports are projected to rise 1.5 million bales to 13.5 million, as foreign demand is expected to outpace supply. Ending stocks are projected at 3 million bales, the lowest since 1995-96. The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 60 to 74 cents per pound.
World cotton production is projected to rise nearly 11 million bales in 2010-11, but supplies will increase less than 1 percent from last season. Production is expected to rise in nearly all cotton-producing countries, with the United States, India, Brazil, and Pakistan accounting for about 70 percent of the increase.
World consumption is projected to rise 2.8 percent, while an increase in China’s imports to 11.5 million bales is boosting world trade. World ending stocks are projected to decline 2.6 million bales to 50.1 million bales. The stocks-to-consumption ratio of 42 percent is the lowest since 1994-95.
Revisions to the old crop balance sheets resulted in an increase of 1.8 million bales in world ending stocks. China accounts for most of the increase, due to higher production and imports.
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